Showing posts with label RSI. Show all posts
Showing posts with label RSI. Show all posts

Sunday, June 3, 2012

Where Can I See the MACD and RSI?


I received a comment from Tea Bug on how he/she can avail of the MACD or RSI.

Btw, how can we avail of these MACD and RSI? 
Now im just doing value investing, buy and hold. But i'm also interested in doing stock analysis.
Regards, Tea Bug

For the benefit of  others who wanted to know also, I am posting it in the blog itself rather than in the comment so that anybody who has the same dilemma can check it.

With regards to MACD and RSI chart you can see them at:

1.     1. QUICKLINKS or you can see it at QUOTES TAB (red box)




2.Once you are inside the chart area, here is the MACD and RSI (red box)


If you are having a hard time seeing the screenshot, 




Saturday, February 25, 2012

EEI CORPORATION (EEI)


Wow! I’m back. After a hiatus of 2 weeks of not even checking my blog and writing something, I’m here sitting in front of my laptop after an energy sapping weeks, but  a spirited and determined one .

Let’s get back to where I ended in my last blogs. As far as construction companies are concerned, we’ll take a look at EEI first. Actually I’ve done this two weeks ago  but my laptop was broken and too busy with my job. Paguwi ko sa bahay tulog na lang. Anyway, I’ve done a minor research on EEI two weeks ago pa and I just wanted to post it.


 Here you go…

EEI CORPORATION (EEI)
Fundamentals:

Huge Backlogs – the construction backlog of EEI is 12.85 billion

As of Sep 30, 2011 the company has 12.85 billion pesos backlogs including international operations. At the very least, its 2012 revenues are already secured partially by these backlogs. The company can complete this 12.85 billion in 2012, and 2013 and the years thereafter depending on the completion date of each project and the percentage it completes every year.

Backlogs:


Domestic

11.62 billion
International
Saudi Arabia
6.67 billion (13.61billion @ 49%)

Singapore
384.27 million

New Caledonia
182.4 million
Total

18.86 billion


Petron Project
EEI Corp. is eyeing the second phase construction of Petron Corp.’s Fluidized Catalytic Cracker, which alone could double its domestic backlog and boost its overall revenues in the next two years.

EEI is hoping to secure a $200-million to $300-million contract for the Petron project, which is estimated to cost around $1 billion.
The project is seen to increase EEI’s backlog by P8.6 billion to P12.9 billion. Total construction backlog from domestic projects amounted to P11.62 billion as of the end of September 2011.
If EEI will get a piece of the action, it could boost EEI revenues further this year if the  construction starts this year and completed in 2013.

PPP
The main catalyst of the growth in revenues for the construction companies.
154 billion pesos will be rolled out this year and if EEI could get a piece of the pie, it could further grow its revenues this year.

Financials:
In Year 2006 and 2007, the P/E ratio of EEI is 14.33 and 13.63 respectively. It bottomed in 2008 during the financial crisis with a 1.56 P/E ratio and slowly starting to go up again from then on. By year 2010, the P/E is 6.2. Can EEI go back again in its 14.33 and 13.63 P/E ratio?

One of the interesting facts on the financials of EEI is the reduction in the % of cost of goods sold. In 2007 and 2008, the cost of goods sold is 92% of the sales. In 2009, it became 86% and in year 2010, it is 84%. Year 2011 cost of goods sold should be around 84 to 85% based on its 9M2011. The management has been getting better in reducing the cost of goods sold. Efficiency is the name of the game.

2010 revenue is 6.9 billion pesos. 9M2011 revenue is already at 6.2 billion pesos. Factoring the 4th quarter revenue will lead to an 8.3 billion pesos forecast for year 2011. 2012 forecast based on it’s 2007 and 2008 difference is 23% and my forecast is 10.2 billion pesos with a net income of 1 billion pesos.

A 1% decrease in cost of goods sold will result in 10 million pesos additional revenues for every 1 billion sales.

Today’s closing prices almost 5.22 and using it results in 5.18 P/E. It’s low.



Technicals
Citiseconline

RSI is a sell signal. Nangyari ito nang malapit ng magsarado ang stock market. Biglang bumaba ang mga stocks at nadamay na rin itong EEI. Lowest RSI since Dec 2011. Is this a sign of more downward movement or just forming a lower base? As always, in a bullish market, we always need a healthy correction para makgkaroon ng legs kapag umakyat uli. Let's see the activity on Monday if the price and volume will act towards a move upwards or downwards.

MACD is not in a good position also. Pababa yung kulay blue kaya downtrend ito. Pero kung contrarian investor ka kung saan kapag bumababa ang presyo saka ka bumibili, then you can buy. 

Summary:

With the Petron project looming, huge backlogs, and PPP forthcoming, the potential of EEI to have record revenues this year is achievable. I also like the efficiency of the management in lowering the cost of goods sold which is a big boost to the bottom-line






Sunday, January 22, 2012

Stock Market Strategy and Technical Analysis

I just received an e-mail from Apple Grace asking so many things about stock market. While I cannot asnwer all of the questions in one article because explaining the answers would require a lot of detailed pages and it may confuse you rather than enlightened. 
Here you go.
I came across your blog and i really hope you can help me "test the stock market waters".
 I have been working outside the country since 2007 and i just started to save a little for myself on august 2011. I have signed up with citiseconline under EIP Program. This is long term investing,right? Somehow, I understand how it works. However, I want to be "risky" and try trading but then, i am scared to begin.
Yung takot na namamayani pgdating sa pagsuong sa lugar na hindi natin kabisado ay normal lamang. Actually, karamihan sa atin ay natatakot lumabas sa ating mga comfort zone kung kayat nawawala ang oportunidad na dumarating sa atin. Kapag dumating ang oportunidad sa iyo, huwag mo nang bitiwan o pakawalan dahil hindi na ito babalik pa.
Sa stock market ganoon din ang proseso. Karamihan sa atin ay natatakot na maging risky dahil baka maubos lamang ang perang ating pinaghirapan.Kaya’t ang advise sa atin ay maging longterm investor para hindi ka na magisip pa kung bababa o tataas ang stock market. Bili ka lang ng blue chip companies then, hintayin mo na ang retirement at siguradong lalaki iyon at kasya sa iyong planong around the world travel kapag may edad ka na.
Ako naman, ang aking strategy sa stock market ay diversified strategy. Minsan, bumibili ako ng stocks kapag pababa ng pababa tulad ng nangyari sa Megaworld(MEG) last December 2011 dahil lang sa isang theory na crowded na ang property business.Well, sa ngayon balik siya sa dati at siyempre kumikita ako.(contrarian investor)
Pangalawa, binili ko rin yung Century Properties (CPG) stocks kahit bago lamang siya dahil nakabili kami ng aking asawa ng munting bahay mula sa kanila. I know how their marketing works and their property portfolios. So I bought it even though it is a very risky move on my part and that I may very well lose all my money with them. Kakalista lamang niya sa stock market last year through backdoor listing and nobody knows how it will perform in the near future since there are no financial statements yet. (Guerilla investor and taking risk).
Pangatlo, may stock ako sa FPH which is masyadong mabagal ang takbo. Ito naman yung stocks ko na mura as far as P/E ratio is concerned. Also ito yung stock ko na pangmatagalan dahil matatag ito, yung business which is energy and power is very defensive and not cyclical. Dividends are good also. (value investor).
 I will not set aside my EIP. I will trade small amounts while maintaining my EIP investments. I just do not know how it works. I do not know even how to project stocks, I do not know how to anticipate if it will fall down or plunge deeper or somehow, if it can recover.
Kung mahilig kang magbasa ng balita sa internet tungkol sa stock market, marami kang mababasa kung tataas o hindi ang stock market. Nagkalat ang mga kumpare at kumare ni Madam Auring.Maraming nanghuhula kung tataas ba o hindi ang stock market.
Technical analysis will help if a stock market will go down or up but it is not absolute.NOBODY can predict if a stock market will go down or up otherwise, siya na ang pinakamayamang tao sa Pilipinas dahil pwede siyang mangutang sa bangko, buy the stock and then sell at a profit kung sigurado siya na tataas ang stock market.
Fundamental analysis also is a guide in predicting the stock market. Macroeconomic factors like OFW remittances, consumer spending, interest rates, inflation, PPP, business environment, political settings and regulations will all affect in one way or another the stock market. Ang ating bansa maganda ang fundamentals kung kayat madaming mga foreigners ang nagiinvest sa atin. Tingnan mo ang ating stock market, it is the best perfoming stock market in the world sa taong ito. We need to give the credit where it is due.
Basically, what i understand is that, you will buy stocks then you will sell it if it goes up. Anticipation is what i do not understand. Will you help me? Also, can you suggest companies that i can buy stocks from that are not so risky? Trading is very risky while investing is not. Investing is synonymous to the adage "slowly but surely". But I wanna try trading. I hope you can help me understand the basic fundamentals of trading and how can I trade with minimal risk as a first timer.
Ok. My favorite technical analsysis that I used are MACD and RSI. Madaming technical analysis ang gamit ng mga traders pero itong dalawang ito ang kadalasang ginagamit sa pagaanalisa ng trend sa stock market. Halimbawa, yung RSI, kapag 30 or below na ito ibig sabihin, oversold na ito. Tingnan mo yung RSI chart sa baba, naging less than 30 ito kung kaya bili na ako rito tapos benta after a few days. Kapag nakita ko ito, binibili ko yung stock dahil sooner babalik din ito sa kanyang dating range. Kapag 70 or more naman ito, overbought na, kapag nakita ko ito, antabay na ako sa preso nito araw-araw. Habang tumataas pa, hindi ko muna ibebenta pero oras na bumaba ito, sell na.




Sa MACD naman, ang titingnan ko ay yung kulay blue.Kapag yung kulay blue ay pumaitaas sa kulay yellow(Minsan red yan), magandang senyales yan. Ibig sabihin antabay ka na kung tataas pa ito. Kapag yung kulay yellow naman ang pumaitaas sa kulay red na linya, medyo maging alerto ka na dahil baka bumaba na ang presyo ng stock mo.

Alam kong hindi ko nasagot lahat ng katanungan mo. Pipilitin kong ipaliwanag sa pinakasimpleng pamamaraan ang mga technical analysis sa itaas sa blog na ito. O kaya naman ay pumunta ka sa OFW Investor para sa iba pang katanungan.