Stock Market Strategy and Technical Analysis

I just received an e-mail from Apple Grace asking so many things about stock market. While I cannot asnwer all of the questions in one article because explaining the answers would require a lot of detailed pages and it may confuse you rather than enlightened. 

Here you go.

I came across your blog and i really hope you can help me "test the stock market waters".

 I have been working outside the country since 2007 and i just started to save a little for myself on august 2011. I have signed up with citiseconline under EIP Program. This is long term investing,right? Somehow, I understand how it works. However, I want to be "risky" and try trading but then, i am scared to begin.

Yung takot na namamayani pgdating sa pagsuong sa lugar na hindi natin kabisado ay normal lamang. Actually, karamihan sa atin ay natatakot lumabas sa ating mga comfort zone kung kayat nawawala ang oportunidad na dumarating sa atin. Kapag dumating ang oportunidad sa iyo, huwag mo nang bitiwan o pakawalan dahil hindi na ito babalik pa.

Sa stock market ganoon din ang proseso. Karamihan sa atin ay natatakot na maging risky dahil baka maubos lamang ang perang ating pinaghirapan.Kaya’t ang advise sa atin ay maging longterm investor para hindi ka na magisip pa kung bababa o tataas ang stock market. Bili ka lang ng blue chip companies then, hintayin mo na ang retirement at siguradong lalaki iyon at kasya sa iyong planong around the world travel kapag may edad ka na.

Ako naman, ang aking strategy sa stock market ay diversified strategy. Minsan, bumibili ako ng stocks kapag pababa ng pababa tulad ng nangyari sa Megaworld(MEG) last December 2011 dahil lang sa isang theory na crowded na ang property business.Well, sa ngayon balik siya sa dati at siyempre kumikita ako.(contrarian investor)

Pangalawa, binili ko rin yung Century Properties (CPG) stocks kahit bago lamang siya dahil nakabili kami ng aking asawa ng munting bahay mula sa kanila. I know how their marketing works and their property portfolios. So I bought it even though it is a very risky move on my part and that I may very well lose all my money with them. Kakalista lamang niya sa stock market last year through backdoor listing and nobody knows how it will perform in the near future since there are no financial statements yet. (Guerilla investor and taking risk).

Pangatlo, may stock ako sa FPH which is masyadong mabagal ang takbo. Ito naman yung stocks ko na mura as far as P/E ratio is concerned. Also ito yung stock ko na pangmatagalan dahil matatag ito, yung business which is energy and power is very defensive and not cyclical. Dividends are good also. (value investor).

 I will not set aside my EIP. I will trade small amounts while maintaining my EIP investments. I just do not know how it works. I do not know even how to project stocks, I do not know how to anticipate if it will fall down or plunge deeper or somehow, if it can recover.

Kung mahilig kang magbasa ng balita sa internet tungkol sa stock market, marami kang mababasa kung tataas o hindi ang stock market. Nagkalat ang mga kumpare at kumare ni Madam Auring.Maraming nanghuhula kung tataas ba o hindi ang stock market.

Technical analysis will help if a stock market will go down or up but it is not absolute.NOBODY can predict if a stock market will go down or up otherwise, siya na ang pinakamayamang tao sa Pilipinas dahil pwede siyang mangutang sa bangko, buy the stock and then sell at a profit kung sigurado siya na tataas ang stock market.

Fundamental analysis also is a guide in predicting the stock market. Macroeconomic factors like OFW remittances, consumer spending, interest rates, inflation, PPP, business environment, political settings and regulations will all affect in one way or another the stock market. Ang ating bansa maganda ang fundamentals kung kayat madaming mga foreigners ang nagiinvest sa atin. Tingnan mo ang ating stock market, it is the best perfoming stock market in the world sa taong ito. We need to give the credit where it is due.

Basically, what i understand is that, you will buy stocks then you will sell it if it goes up. Anticipation is what i do not understand. Will you help me? Also, can you suggest companies that i can buy stocks from that are not so risky? Trading is very risky while investing is not. Investing is synonymous to the adage "slowly but surely". But I wanna try trading. I hope you can help me understand the basic fundamentals of trading and how can I trade with minimal risk as a first timer.

Ok. My favorite technical analsysis that I used are MACD and RSI. Madaming technical analysis ang gamit ng mga traders pero itong dalawang ito ang kadalasang ginagamit sa pagaanalisa ng trend sa stock market. Halimbawa, yung RSI, kapag 30 or below na ito ibig sabihin, oversold na ito. Tingnan mo yung RSI chart sa baba, naging less than 30 ito kung kaya bili na ako rito tapos benta after a few days. Kapag nakita ko ito, binibili ko yung stock dahil sooner babalik din ito sa kanyang dating range. Kapag 70 or more naman ito, overbought na, kapag nakita ko ito, antabay na ako sa preso nito araw-araw. Habang tumataas pa, hindi ko muna ibebenta pero oras na bumaba ito, sell na.

Sa MACD naman, ang titingnan ko ay yung kulay blue.Kapag yung kulay blue ay pumaitaas sa kulay yellow(Minsan red yan), magandang senyales yan. Ibig sabihin antabay ka na kung tataas pa ito. Kapag yung kulay yellow naman ang pumaitaas sa kulay red na linya, medyo maging alerto ka na dahil baka bumaba na ang presyo ng stock mo.

Alam kong hindi ko nasagot lahat ng katanungan mo. Pipilitin kong ipaliwanag sa pinakasimpleng pamamaraan ang mga technical analysis sa itaas sa blog na ito. O kaya naman ay pumunta ka sa OFW Investor para sa iba pang katanungan.

My Stock Picks for this Month

I've been checking the blue chip companies lately and I have selected the best companies that has the most growth potential.

Below are my stock picks for the month of August. The current price are the stock price of the companies as of yesterday. I obtained the outstanding shares from the latest financial statements submitted to PSE and that is mainly the 1st quarter unaudited financial statements. To make the computation simple, I just multiply the 1st quarter income into 4 to get the Earnings Per Share (EPS) Annualized. 

I picked the company with the highest growth potential based only on the recent high price occurred in July.

The picks may not reflect the sentiment of the investors and may even contradict the direction of the Philippine Stock Market in general. These are my personal opinions and you can have a different set of pick.

The above picture is a simple computation which can be done by the laymen.

My hope is that everyone of us would someday achieve the financial freedom we are aiming for.

To Our Financial Freedom!

My Stock Portfolio

As a stock investor, perhaps you are wondering what are the stocks I am buying. Well, I have bought various stocks already and sold them at a profit. After selling all my stocks before, I purchased again every month and below are the current stocks I have.

Action	Stock Code	Market Price	Ave. Cost Price	% Gain/Loss
BUY | SELL	ALI	15.9000	15.0918	5.36%
BUY | SELL	FPH	60.7000	62.8556	-3.43%
BUY | SELL	MWIDE	11.0600	8.9262	23.90%
BUY | SELL	SCC	214.8000	213.5281	0.60%
BUY | SELL	VLL	3.1800	3.1794	0.02%

ALI - is the largest and most diversified real estate company in the Philippines.ALI is a brand of it's own. A company that sets the benchmark in almost every aspect of real estate industry.

The share price against it earnings is expensive. Investors are willing to put a premium to the price of it's share given it's vast knowledge and experience in real estate. Since the company has 4300 hectares of land bank, it is well position to capitalize on the hot property market in the next ten years. Net income has been growing every year except in Year 2009. 

The net income for the 1st quarter is 1.6 billion pesos and it's well on it's pace to break it's previous net income record in Year 2010. Liquidity is not an issue also because the current ratio is 1.96:1 for the 1st quarter of Year 2011. The debt to equity ratio is also good at .53:1. Overall, ALI has huge cash in the coffers and can capitalize on every market opportunity.

Since the company is growing and with it's steady net income and on it's way of achieving it's 10 billion pesos net income target, it might be beneficial to include it in the stock portfolio.


FPH - this stock is recommended by Bo Sanchez.(by the way, if you want to know his stock recommendation, please click on the Truly Rich Club banner on the right side).


I checked Citiseconline's research on this and below is there analysis on FPH.


Cheap from all angles.  FPH’s is cheap, no matter how you value the stock. At Php57.00,
the stock is trading at a 30.3% discount to its market based NAV of Php82/sh.  It is also 
trading at a very compelling 2010E P/E of 8.7X vs. the PSEi’s 10.5X.  Moreover, FPH is 
currently trading at a steep 28.75% discount to our fair value estimate of Php80.00/sh, 
which is conservative since it includes a 20% holding company discount.  


Cash hoard now secure. FPH will be in a net cash position of Php7.6Bil following the sale 
of its 6.7% stake in Meralco to the Metro Pacific group, based on our estimates. FPH plans 
to use its cash hoard to maximize shareholder value.


FPH could be one of the highest dividend paying stocks this year. After resuming its 
Php1.00/sh cash dividend in 2009, management said it will pay a Php2.00/sh this year. 
Based on a Php2.00/sh cash dividend, FPH’s dividend yield would be 3.5%, making it one 
of the highest yielding issues in the market.


MWIDE - The outlook for the property sector is bright because of the strong economy, growing OFW remittances and skyrocketing tourism. The ties of MWIDE with Henry Sy will ensure billions worth of revenues in the coming years because SM Malls are sprouting like mushrooms everywhere. Also since MWIDE uses high technology in construction (it is the first company actually to extensively use advance technology), it has a big advantage right now compared to Ayala Land and Megaworld. It is also setting up a billion pesos precast manufacturing complex that will increase its production and lead time.


MWIDE is bidding for government projects also this year as it tried to spread the profit from SM to other clients.


SCC - is a defensive company and is not vulnerable from cyclical downturns. It is a great company with competent management. The power plant business is slowly gaining momentum and will realize its full potential in a couple of years. Global demand for coal is soaring coal prices are skyrocketing. Being the only large scale coal producing company in the Philippines, it is well established to capitalize on global energy demand and a rising Philippines expected to gobble up more electricity. As one of the large companies giving a large dividend pay-out, it’s worth including SCC shares in my portfolio. 


VLL - After checking the Price Earnings of other real estate listed in the stock market, VLL is on the bottom part but I believe that sooner the correct fair value of the company will reflect in the market. The recent buy back of the Company and the management's confidence in their own internal processes and financial condition, reflects the company's belief that it's share price is grossly undervalued. The current ratio is very strong, and the longterm debt are manageable. 2011 could be a record year and given the hot property market still soaring, VLL can capitalize on this. It is a cash rich company and it's subdivisions are well known throughout the country.

The ratios and key performance indicators I mentioned above were based from 1st quarter 2011 reports. It's latest financial reports strongly suggests that VLL is undervalued and is currently selling at a bargain.