PSEi Hits Intra-day All Time High.

Stock	Buy Below	Date Bought	Current Price	Target Price	Average Cost	Return	% Of Portfolio	Div Yield
BLUE CHIP STOCKS
BDO	60.00	Sep 6, ‘12	64.30	81.00	60.10	7.00%	1.83%
ALI	20.00		23.40	22.50	-	-	0.00%
PGOLD	24.00		29.70	30.00	-	-	0.00%
EDC	6.00	Sep 6, ‘12	6.30	8.50	5.94	6.09%	1.96%
TEL	2,600.00		2,760.00	3,000.00	-	-	0.00%
AGI	11.00		14.28	15.00	-	-	0.00%
MBT	94.00	Sep 14,’12	92.45	105.00	94.35	-2.02%	0.24%
PX	-		14.10	24.00	-	-	0.00%
SMALL CAP STOCKS
PHES	0.74	Sep 24, ‘12	0.71	2.70	0.73	-3.32%	95.89%
BHI	0.16		0.15	0.51	-	-	0.00%
CASH						0%	0.09%
TOTAL						-2.94%	100%
PSEi (Since Sep 6, '12)						5.51%

The market hit an intra-day all time high yesterday before plunging in red at the close. Value turnover also increased yesterday as investors tried to chase stocks. Amidst the optimism that is engulfing the market right now, I have a cautious approach on this bullish trend because of the Japan-Sino tug of war, and the US fiscal cliff. Anyway, any dips from the current prices is a welcome development for me as I will be able to buy stocks at my buy below prices.

BDO/MBT – the valuations remains attractive. The banks are an indirect play on the growth of every industry. As such, so long as the country’s economic fundamentals remain intact, banks are deemed to be a safe bet in the current economic cycles. Big banks like BDO and MBT play a crucial role in economic growth of the country. The current age of the population is very attractive for growth.

The only question I would like to know is what percentage do our banks exposure to Europe has? Recent reports said that our banks have ‘minimal’ exposure to Europe banks which is good but I’m not convinced until proper disclosures have been made by banks. A circular coming from BSP compelling the banks to disclose their exposure would be beneficial.

Banks will be required by BSP to report their exposure in the real estate industry starting Dec 31, 2012. This is a good start to somehow control the asset bubble in the real estate. Banks are allowed to loan maximum of 20% only of their portfolio in real estate.Malaya

ALI – the premier real estate developer in the country has valuations way beyond the others. ALI is a league of his own. The current P/E average of the real estate industry is only 10 while ALI treks at a P/E of more than 30. The distance between its competitors is just numbing. ALI has vast land banks which it can tap should the current demand overshoots the current supply of the residential and office units. ALI is at this stage on a very aggressive mode developing one project after the other.

The COA finally approved the Deed of Conditional Sale between Negros Occidental and Ayala Land involving 7.7 hectare of prime property.SunStar It is interesting to see the reaction of Ayala Land this given that they previously told the Negros government that it is engaging from the deal.

One of the good things about ALI is that it is one of the favorite stocks of foreign investors.

TEL – this is like a preferred stock. You get a 6-7% dividend per year with an upside in the appreciation of the stock. Bonds are currently trading at 5-6% which is at the low levels of the range. Analysts expect the interest rates to remain the same or go lower than the current rate in the foreseeable future. As such, I am favoring TEL as a substitute in the current interest rates with an upside of price appreciation. TEL net income expects it to be 37B this year. However, next year could be different as the company expects to hit the bottomline at more than 40B.

It has recently completed its major infrastructure upgrade that will enable it to handle data explosion. TEL still retains its market share in the telecom industry but it is slowly gaining foothold in the VOIP industry. TEL also has access in the information technology and I think this is where the growth of TEL will come. The telecom industry is matured already and growth is limited. The dividend is a testament to that.

PLDT will invest P560M to triple the capacity of its internet gateway- the network facility that handles internet traffic going to and from servers abroad. ^{GMA News}

AGI – together with wholly owned subsidiary New Town Land Partners exercised their right to buy 3.071B Megaworld warrants at P1 per share. Manila Standard

PGOLD – the consumer play. PGOLDs listing last year gave the investors an alternative to URC, SMC, AGI (partially), JFC and others. Indeed, since its listing last year, PGOLD has increased its stores nationwide and is still in expansion mode. It is planning to issue P8B of notes for its expansion.

My friend 'Jeff’ said that he likes PGOLD stores. PGOLD have a store in Arayat and he likes going in there. With this I am with the impression that PGOLD is a good buy but not at this level. A buy on dips is suggested.

If you live outside Philippines, perhaps you may want to check some details on one Puregold store here.

EDC – with all the brouhaha that is happening with EDC e.g. delays in rehab of geothermal machine, management credibility, etc. is an opportunity to buy at a lower price. Once the turbines are repaired and put into operations, the price will go back to its previous level.  

PHES – I’m all in. Obviously I have studied its financials and prospects. PHES is a turnaround company and asset play. The land values being reflected in the books are recognized at cost or NRV whichever is lower. Thus, it is fair to assume that PHES landbank are valued at cost because the Valenzuela property alone would be worth P3.2B at 10,000 per SQM. This will translate into 2.21 per share, a 216% increase!

Now, not all computations and assumptions are absolutely correct. That is why they are called assumptions. However, one must not look somewhere to determine the fair value of a company. 

PX – the permit for the second tailing pond must be secured first. Otherwise PX operation will hang and consequently there will be no revenue for the succeeding years. This permit is crucial. Right now, the hole is a bottomless pit and this stock may go lower until government permits and clearance are obtained.

Philex gets another week to respond to a notice imposing a P1.034B fine for its alleged violation of Philippine Mining Act of 1995 after failing to contain its Padcal mine's waste within its tailing facility.Bworldonline

BHI – The opening of Friday's resort hotel in Puerto Galera has been pushed back to February 2013, according to publicly listed Boulevard Holdings Inc.  (BHI). Hotel construction is now four weeks behind schedule due to inclement weather. ^Abs-Cbn

Note: This is not a solicitation to buy. Buy at your own risk.

“²⁸Come to me, all you who are weary and burdened, and I will give you rest. ²⁹ Take my yoke upon you and learn from me, for I am gentle and humble in heart, and you will find rest for your souls. ³⁰ For my yoke is easy and my burden is light.” Matthew 11:28-30

BHI's Sudden Flight to the Moon

Current Speculative Stock Portfolio

Stock	Buy Below	Current Price	Target Price	Actual Price Bought	Actual Return
PHES	.63-.68	.68	2.70	-	-
BHI	.11	.171	.145	.1705	0.29%

Historical Speculative Stock Portfolio

Stock	Date Sold	Price Bought	Price Sold	Actual Return	Remarks
PHES	Sep 3’12	.6625	.67	1.13%	Profit

BHI – this stock has momentum. I transferred my holdings from PHES to BHI for quick profits.

PHES – will get back on this once the volume increases or price goes to near .63 again.

Only the market will tell if the switch I made will yield to profits or not.

Before the runup started on Aug 9, 2012, the net volume bought by brokers is tepid. The top 3 Brokers before the runup were Abacus, Westlink and Yao while SB Securities on the other hand continue to unload the shares.

AB Capital, SB Securities, and BDO Securities are the top 3 buyers during the runup while Angping and Tower Sec are the top two sellers.

As of June 30, 2012 Angping has 25M shares plus 8.5M shares bought from Jul 3 to Aug 31 for a total of 33.5M shares. It sold 164M shares from Jul 3 to Aug 31!  Where the shares came from? I think it came from investor/s that has an account with one broker and then transferred it to Angping to avoid the obvious selling he/they are doing. By the end of September though, a new list for the top 100 stockholders will be disclosed and from that we can check from what broker the shares came from.

What I am seeing is that the crowd is just following the momentum that BHI has during its ascent to .18. What had transpired last Friday is that RSA’s airport plan has made punters to speculate that BHI’s massive land bank will be a target SMC’s land bank acquisition for airport, seaport, residential and industrial district.

It rocketed to the moon for three days starting Aug 9, 2012. It consolidated for a while and then on Friday was up again because of the conglomerate rumors.

As disclosed already by BHI, the target of the conglomerate is to amass 10,000 hectares to build for its projects in Cavite. Puerto Azul is in Cavite and that made the punters to run up the price of BHI.

THE TRADING PLAN FOR THE WEEK

Be alert on Tuesday for a price runup. If the market tried to let it fly, ride it. This requires attentiveness for the whole day. One minute off the ticker and you die. I buy at the open and raise my support stop at 5% profit. I’ll ride it though the next day if it ends up in green.

Sep 3 – observations. There was a 41M volume at .17 prices and it was broken by investors from COL. JP Guilds continue to acquire shares in the market.

BEFORE THE RUNUP (JUL 3-AUG 8, 2012)

TOP BUYERS

Symbol	Name	Net Buy Volume	Buy Ave	Amount
102	ABACUS SECURITIES	35,220,000	0.126	4,444,764
270	WESTLINK GLOBAL	25,750,000	0.140	3,592,125
275	YAO & ZIALCITA, INC.	20,400,000	0.140	2,851,920
147	E. CHUA CHIACO	17,870,000	0.133	2,373,136
279	BDO SECURITIES CORP.	14,870,000	0.116	1,718,972
154	EVERGREEN STOCK	13,220,000	0.132	1,741,074
136	TRITON SECURITIES	11,650,000	0.130	1,512,170
267	FIRST METRO SECURITIES	8,170,000	0.131	1,067,002

TOP SELLERS

Symbol	Name	Net Sell Volume	Sell Ave	Amount
115	SB SECURITIES,INC.	(176,490,000)	0.134	(23,684,958)
220	ATR KIM ENG SECURITIES	(18,570,000)	0.119	(2,200,545)

DURING THE RUNUP (AUG 9-31, 2012)

TOP BUYERS

Symbol	Name	Net Buy Volume	Buy Ave	Amount
112	AB CAPITAL SECURITIES,	37,620,000	0.148	5,548,950
115	SB SECURITIES,INC.	33,530,000	0.150	5,039,559
279	BDO SECURITIES CORP.	29,060,000	0.151	4,385,154
200	MANDARIN SECURITIES	26,100,000	0.160	4,170,780
269	WEALTH SECURITIES, INC.	20,970,000	0.143	2,994,516
125	JAKA SECURITIES	18,560,000	0.168	3,108,800
236	R. NUBLA SECURITIES, IN	17,270,000	0.154	2,659,580
192	STRATEGIC EQUITIES	17,100,000	0.165	2,812,950
233	R. COYIUTO SECURITIES,	16,560,000	0.159	2,631,384
167	AURORA SECURITIES, INC.	13,890,000	0.162	2,255,736

TOP SELLERS

Symbol	Name	Net Sell Volume	Sell Ave	Amount
110	ANGPING & ASSOCIATES	-155,420,000	0.148	(23,048,786)
253	TOWER SECURITIES, INC.	-44,000,000	0.160	(7,026,800)
338	PHILIPPINE EQUITY	-40,000,000	0.150	(6,016,000)
230	QUALITY INVESTMENT	-15,600,000	0.145	(2,268,240)
147	E. CHUA CHIACO	-15,480,000	0.155	(2,396,304)
232	ALAKOR SECURITIES	-15,000,000	0.172	(2,580,000)
199	LUY S SECURITIES	-10,000,000	0.173	(1,727,000)
240	S.J. ROXAS & COMPANY	-9,800,000	0.143	(1,403,360)
247	STANDARD SECURITIES	-8,730,000	0.150	(1,312,992)
129	SINCERE SECURITIES	-8,730,000	0.148	(1,294,659)

ON THE SIDELINES

Top ten brokers not included in the top sellers/buyers from Jul 3-Aug 31, 2012 but has significant shares on hand are as follows:

Name	As of June 30, 2012
COL	436,909,966
CITIBANK	101,560,000
FIRST METRO	67,990,000
VALUE QUEST	57,560,000
E. CHUA CHIACO	51,150,000
SOLAR SECURITIES	46,730,000
IGC SECURITIES	43,890,000
EASTERN SECURITIES	41,450,000
I. ACKERMAN	40,760,000
HDI SECURITIES	40,060,000

TOP HOLDERS (ESTIMATED HOLDINGS)

Symbol	Name	Net Buy Volume Jul 3-Aug 31	Ave Price	As of June 30, 2012 Volume	Estimated Volume
102	ABACUS SECURITIES	41,860,000	0.140	260,472,584	302,332,584
279	BDO SECURITIES CORP.	43,930,000	0.146	167,520,000	211,450,000
236	R. NUBLA SECURITIES	21,420,000	0.149	114,010,000	135,430,000
270	WESTLINK GLOBAL	32,400,000	0.143	82,830,000	115,230,000
269	WEALTH SECURITIES	21,900,000	0.143	92,510,000	114,410,000
103	ACCORD CAPITAL	11,880,000	0.154	82,580,000	94,460,000
112	AB CAPITAL	38,000,000	0.146	41,510,000	79,510,000
111	ANSALDO, GODINEZ	12,590,000	0.157	66,310,000	78,900,000
233	R. COYIUTO	18,360,000	0.156	42,520,000	60,880,000
204	DA MARKET	12,900,000	0.140	47,800,000	60,700,000

INSIDERS TRADING ACTIVITY

Date	Acquired /Disposed	Average Selling price	Company	Owner	# of Shares		% of Ownership		# of shares owned
Aug 31, 2012	Acquired	0.1543	BHI	JP Guilds	30,250,000	56.39%		4,492,633,408
Aug 23, 2012	Acquired	0.1398	BHI	JP Guilds	10,140,000	56.01%		4,462,383,408

TOP SELLERS (ESTIMATED SELL SHARES)

Symbol	Name	Net Buy Volume Jul 3-Aug 31	Ave Price	As of June 30, 2012 Volume	Estimated Volume
110	ANGPING & ASSOC	(155,400,000)	0.148	25,330,000	(130,070,000)
338	PHILIPPINE EQUITY	(40,000,000)	0.150	-	(40,000,000)
240	S.J. ROXAS & COM	(9,500,000)	0.143	230,000	(9,270,000)
232	ALAKOR SECURITIES	(15,000,000)	0.172	6,950,000	(8,050,000)
230	QUALITY INVE	(9,460,000)	0.145	35,840,000	26,380,000
253	TOWER SECURITIES	(46,530,000)	0.159	84,800,000	38,270,000
199	LUY S SECURITIES	(10,000,000)	0.173	75,210,000	65,210,000
220	ATR KIM ENG	(10,870,000)	0.136	88,950,000	78,080,000
115	SB SECURITIES,INC.	(142,960,000)	0.140	2,489,693,000	2,346,733,000

CHARTS

The downward trend is broken.

Small Penant with an upward bias. RSI, MACD and volume are all conspiring for a good run.

P.S. Do not try this because it is very risky. It can wipe out your capital. I am doing this because I am comfortable with what I am doing whether at a loss or profit.