Monday, October 22, 2012

Alert: Thank you for the Lessons, PHES


Wow! After waiting for almost a month for the JV signing since its disclosure, until now it is not signed. The disclosure said the signing will be in a few days but it is almost a month already. I have learned that “within the next few days” means it can take a month or so. Unbelievable! The respect I have with the management has diminished. I think the “within the next few days” statement put a dent on the credibility of the management.

I still believe that PHES is an asset play with its massive land bank. However, my support of .63 was broken which was very critical to me. For the nth time, this .63 price was not broken. The price of PHES did not go below .63 except today which was very telling for me. As I have said in my previous blog, if .63 is broken it may go down to .2. Of course, nothing is absolute in stock market and I maybe wrong. Once I saw that .63 is broken, it’s time to sell for me at a loss. I sold all my positions today.

I maybe wrong in selling PHES at the moment but I take responsibility with my actions. I lost 16% of my investment because I believe that JV is coming soon with “within the next few days” statement. Unfortunately, after almost a month it did not came. We all know that this JV is the catalyst for PHES to go up if you are following the story.

I have friends who have invested in PHES also upon my recommendation. Although their loss may not be as big as mine, I take full responsibility on that.

I will come back with PHES but this time I will be prudent.












Arriving with MacroAsia


MacroAsia Corporation (MAC), formerly known as Infanta Mineral and Industrial Corporation (IMIC), was incorporated on February 16, 1970 to primarily engage in the business of geological exploration and development. On January 26, 1994, the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) approved the change in the IMIC's original purpose to that of a holding company, and its corporate name to Cobertson Holdings Corporation. In November 1995, the SEC further approved the change in corporate name to its present name. MAC began commercial operations as a holding company under its amended charter in 1996.

MAC at present is engaged primarily in aviation-related support businesses. It provides aircraft maintenance, repairs and overhaul services, charter flight services, airport ground handling services and in-flight catering services and operates a special economic zone at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport (NAIA). All subsidiaries and associated companies of MAC render services directly to the airline customers/locators at NAIA, Manila Domestic Airport, Mactan-Cebu International Airport and Davao International Airport.

MAC operates mainly through its four subsidiaries and two affiliates, namely, Lufthansa Technik Philippines, Inc., MacroAsia Catering Services, Inc., Cebu Pacific Catering Services, Inc., MacroAsia Airport Services Corporation, MacroAsia Properties Development Corporation, and MacroAsia Air Taxi Services, Inc. 

Aside from airport businesses, MAC also has mining projects after receiving from the government a Mineral Production Sharing Agreement (MPSA) in 2006. The MPSA covers 1,114 hectares as renewal of its rights in the nickel-rich area in Brooke's Point, Palawan. In May 2007, MAC received its second MPSA covering 410 hectares in another nearby area in Brooke's Point, Palawan. Both areas are used to be held and mined by IMIC.

SNAPSHOT
# of shares outstanding:
1,234,312,000
Current Price:
2.75
Market Value
  3,394,358,000
Stockholders’ Equity (As of 30-Jun-12)
3,212,941,000
Price to Book Value Ratio
               1.06
Price to Book Value (Appraised) Ratio
                  -  
P/E Ratio
            194.24
ROE
0.54%
ROA
0.47%
Free Float
25%


FINANCIAL RESULTS In Thousand

2012F
2011
2010

Revenues
1,728,188
1,361,874
1,171,611

Cost of Services
1,208,188
1,014,280
882,902

Gross Profit %
30%
26%
25%

G & A Expenses
346,478
346,304
361,830

Net Income/(Loss)
34,950
299,456
401,126

EPS
0.028
0.2416
  0.32

Book Value
3,212,941
3,227,900
3,034,740

 Stock Price
2.75
3.00
3.00

Book Value Per Share
2.60
2.60
2.43

P/E Ratio
97.12
12.42
9.33

Price to Book Value Ratio
1.06
1.15
1.23

Outstanding Shares
1,234,312
1,239,530
1,247,020

Total Assets
3,683,489
3,854,842
3,423,095

Stockholders’ Equity
3,212,941
3,227,903
3,034,741

ROA
0.95%
7.77%
11.72%

ROE
1.09%
9.28%
13.22%


·         Revenues are increasing for the Inflight and other catering and ground handling and aviation
·         Direct cost increased by 26% while revenues increased by 33%. Cost efficient is in the works.The management has effectively reduced the cost of services provided. Moreover, the 14% increased in G&A expenses is minimal at 14% increase

·         Majority of the profit of MAC is coming from its affiliates, Lufthansa Technik Philippines, Inc. In fact, among the companies, LTP is the bread and butter of MAC as far as income contribution is concern. Thus, it is no surprised that when LTP incurred a net loss for 1H12, it spilled over unto MAC. The current loss is temporary because of the increased costs associated with starting up the A380 hangar for operations. Once this is over, revenues will go up and consequently its net income.

·         The dividend yield per year is 2.75% at its current price of 2.75.

·         MAC’s price has been descending since its peak in 2007 which is almost 6 pesos. At its current price of 2.75, it is already down by more than 50% and we still don’t know how low the price will go.

·         The average P/E and PBV for the past five years are 15 and 2 respectively. I think that is quite high considering that 2007 is the peak of the last bull cycle. A more conservative estimate should be P/E of 10 and PBV of 1.5.

·         A 600,000 net income is achievable at least in 2013 I think because of the expanded hangar operations of LTP and improving revenues. With that in mind, a P/E of 10 would result in a target price of 4.87 which is very conservative because the computation merely rely on the current businesses. Mining and PPP projects are excluded.

·         Passenger loads and flight frequencies of airlines are the two most important factors that affect the revenue levels of the Group’s operating units. With the improving economic outlook of the Philippines, air travel is seen to rise in the foreseeable future.

·         A very liquid company with more than 1 billion peso in cash at its disposal, it can partly fund the Mining and PPP airport projects which can provide an upside for MAC.

·         MAC has a buyback program of 50 million because the management believes that the company is trading below its inherent value. As of June 30, 2012 it spent P42M already and is still counting. An insider also bought 50K shares last month.




Mining Treasure
Bulawan Mining Corporation (BUMICO) assigned its rights, interests and obligations to MacroAsia under its Operating Agreement with PHILEX, involving 62 mining claims in Negros Occidental, of  which 6 are covered by a Mining Lease Contract and were subjected to mining operations by PHILEX from 1996-2002.

PNB Management and Development Corporation  (MADECOR), assigned its rights, interests and  obligations to MacroAsia under its Operating Agreement with PHILEX, involving 61 mining claims in Negros Occidental.

The assignment is limited to the Assignors’ rights, interests and obligations under their respective operating agreements with PHILEX.  

The Company’s mining project, which is basically a reactivation of the Infanta Nickel Mine that was operational in the 1970’s, is expected to generate revenues as soon as all the mining permits for operations are secured. The mining project has already been endorsed for operations by the local government units and the Palawan Council for Sustainable Development (PCSD), and has been granted the Environmental Compliance Certificate (ECC) for operations on September 09, 2010. The Company is in the final stage of securing its Certificate of Precondition (CP) from the National Commission on Indigenous People (NCIP). This document signifies the formal granting of Free and Prior Informed Consent by the indigenous peoples within the host barangays as attested by the NCIP.

In this Memorandum of Agreement, Jinchuan and MacroAsia recognize their common interest in nickel mining in Palawan and agree to cooperate with each other by jointly developing and operating if possible, their nickel laterite properties upon respective completion of all statutory requirements for mining operations.  The two companies also agreed to undertake a joint venture to construct a processing facility, subject to a mutually-acceptable feasibility study, with an end in view of adding value to their respective commercial operations.  Over the life of the project, the estimated value of the investments being targeted is about US$1 Billion.

Considering the existence of an ore stockpile and roads within the mining tenement, it is possible to start ore shipment less than a year after all permits are completed.

The diversification shall move MAC away from its core aviation related business. Mining is a different business and it requires a different approach to the core business of the group. We all know that mining eats up a lot of resources and this may drain the cash of MAC. MAC has more than a billion of cash at its disposal.  

I believe that this is a game changer for MAC if the operation is successful. MAC can take a cue from MARC, a listed nickel mining company.

Expanding presence abroad
MacroAsia, whose management is led by chairman Washington Sycip, derives the bulk of revenues from aircraft maintenance and repair as well as inflight services like catering. It is also expanding its presence abroad and recently signed a joint venture in Qatar to go into industrial catering, with an initial P12 million investment, Chua said. He said MacroAsia will gain 44-percent equity in the partnership but will maintain management and board control. Lucio Tan Jr., MacroAsia director, said the company is also in talks to form similar joint venture deals with companies in Europe and Asia but he declined to elaborate.

I think it is one way for MAC to increase its revenues in the future further.

MacroAsia looks at PPP airport projects
MacroAsia Corp., a listed aviation services firm, will be used as Tan’s vehicle to participate in these airport and related cargo terminal projects, company president and chief executive officer Joseph Chua said.


Source: Philippine Stock Exchange        

Saturday, October 20, 2012

Mean October

Stock
 Buy Below
Date Bought
 Current Price
 Target Price
 Average Cost
Return + Dividends
% Of Portfolio
BLUE CHIP STOCKS

BDO
         60.00

Sep 6, ‘12
           63.10
          81.00
         60.10

5.00%

2%

ALI
         20.00

          23.20
         22.50
               -  

0

0%

PGOLD
         24.00

          30.65
         30.00
               -  

0

0%

EDC
           6.00

Sep 6, ‘12
             6.25
           8.50
          5.94

5.25%

2%

TEL
         2,600

          2,670
         3,000
               -  

0

0%

AGI
           11.00

            15.14
          15.00
               -  

0

0%

MBT
         94.00
Sep 14,’12
          92.80
       105.00
        94.35

-1.65%

0%





SMALL CAP STOCKS

PHES
         0.740
Sep 24, ‘12
             0.67
           2.70
          0.73

-8.77%

96%

BHI
          0.158

           0.145
          0.510
               -  

0

0%
CASH





0
0%
TOTAL





-8.22%
100%
PSEi (Since Sep 6, '12)
5.48%



It looks like there is a lot of liquidity in the market due to the gains made on blue chips stocks recently. Small caps are running havoc in the market now with APM leading the way. October is a mean month in the stock market. Thus, punters tend to play on small caps randomly during this period. Also, fundies have just reported their 3rd quarter results and are now in position to play with the other stocks for the rest of the 4th quarter.

The Philippines is expected to remain the most promising economy in Southeast Asia as the country performs better than the regional average, according to UBS Securities.Inquirer  Well, good news for us especially the stockholders. More foreign investments means more capital and buyers in the market that will push the price of the stocks higher.


BLUE CHIPS STOCKS

EDC – Energy Development Corp., the largest Philippine geothermal company, may form a joint venture to fund as many as six South American projects being developed by Alterra Power Corp. www.renewableenergyworld.com

TEL – I like the company’s aggressive stance in strengthening its networks and cables. The Supreme Court issued with finality that PLDT’s shares are majority owned by foreigners. GMA Network However, MVP said the PLDT has prepared for this long ago in anticipation of the ruling. The company will issue 150M voting shares to PLDT Beneficial Trust Fund. Phil Star
TEL is going nearer our buy below price of 2,600. Nice.

MBT- is being beaten due to its exposure in real estate which is almost 20% of its loan.ColFinancial. Fundamentals still intact though. Nothing to worry. The upside is we can buy more at cheaper prices. 

SMALL CAP STOCK

PHES –I believe that once the JV is signed and the numbers are out, analysts will start to cover this stock and that will be the only time that will push the price high with stability. Right now let the market ignore this stock.


I trust God. I am not afraid. What can mortals do to me? Psalm 56:11